Worldview Investing - Ruminations on the World Economy

Credit: Gemini        "Private credit" (PC) is a  euphemism for businesses known as "Non-Bank Financial Institutions" (NBFI). These include funds run by Blackstone, Apollo, Blue Owl, and many others. They make loans to businesses that are unable to obtain loans from banks due to their small size and/or higher credit (default) risk.      P rivate credit lenders take in money from many sources including ordinary investors, pension funds, college endowment funds, and wealthy investors all of whom are looking for higher yields than are available in the bond markets. The borrowers are typically not listed on any stock exchange so they have not filed audited financial statements with the SEC that investors can review. Furthermore, their credit risk has not been rated by any of the established credit rating firms.       When you invest money in a private credit vehicle, you have no way to know much of anything about the borrowers or a...

  Credit: Gemini     Many readers will be unfamiliar with US folktales about "Uncle Remus" including his story about Brer Fox, Br'er Rabbit and the Tar Baby. The wily fox tricks the rabbit into hitting a "tar baby" that would not respond to his cheerful greeting. The harder the rabbit fought to get loose, the more he became entangled. Some have suggested that the wily Benjamin Netanyahu tricked the US into striking the Iran tar baby, hoping to advance Israel's interests. We do not know if Trump was gamed by Bibi or was independently keen for another dramatic military action.       The outcome of the conflict is unknown. We do not opine on the wisdom or folly of Trump's special military operation because we are not privy to any of the facts that were said to have supported it. Assessing whether Iran should be allowed to develop atomic weapons is also beyond our job description. Clearly, it is not in Israels' interest for its implacable foe to have acc...

Credit: H. Lawrence March 4, 2026            Perdition: the state of eternal damnation, hell or utter ruin . Ray Dalio, a prolific writer about the world's economies, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, frequent interviewee (see many YouTube videos) and creator of financially oriented animated videos viewed by over 200 million people, published a book last year called " How Countries Go Broke, The Big Debt Cycle ." This post addresses his research on the collapse of thirty-five nations over the last hundred years in which either governments and/or their central banks went broke.     Dalio points to a repeating sequence of events that follow the end of Big Debt Cycles triggering each of those national collapses: 1.  The private and government sectors get deeply in debt. 2. The private sector suffers a debt crisis of some sort (e.g., massive loan repayment defaults, bank lending crisis) and the government goes deeper into debt ...

Source:WWE.com       At this WWE event, the contestants (red and blue) act out their carefully orchestrated scripts. The fans stand and scream their support for one and their outrage at the other. The "official" in a stripped shirt pretends to ensure that the "rules" are being followed. At the end of the night, the performers  go home richer but bruised and the fans go home poorer but entertained. Most people, but not all, recognize that it was all performance art.     T he two US political parties try mightily to convince voters that they are very different. Both argue that they have the solutions necessary to solve the nation's vexing problems. At political fund raising events people stand and scream support for their candidate and their outrage at the other. At the end of the night, the politicians go home richer and their supporters go home poorer but entertained. Most people, but not all, fail to recognize that it was all performance art.  ...