Worldview Investing - Ruminations on the World Economy

  H. Lawrence "Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns"       Donald Rumsfeld, former US Sec. of Defense, used these phrases in a 2002 press conference. He was warning of the vastly under-appreciated dangers associated with the latter category.  The above chart is a tongue-in-cheek effort to debunk the common belief that we possess sufficient information to know what is coming in our social, political and financial futures. The truth is we are  all feeling our way forward in a dark room hoping to avoid falling into an open pit.       Many think that because they read newspapers, watch the "news" on TV, subscribe to a financial publication or two, and have read an investment or political treatise they are well prepared for what is to come. However, we learn on a daily basis that much of that information is unreliable (e.g., employment and CPI data) and some is utterly false. There is no source of information that tells us with any level of ce...

  18th Century imagining of Emperor Qin Shi Huang     We have addressed the many financial, economic and social ills facing the US, England and various continental nations. None of these problems are being seriously addressed by those in political power. So, they will not only continue to fester but will grow at an increasing pace. Looking East, one sees many of the same problems. China     A little history is useful to appreciate the miracle of present day China. In the year 221 BC, Ying Zheng unified China and declared himself to be Emperor Qin Shi Huang. We use the term "unified" in the historic sense meaning he "defeated and subjugated" the former seven states comprising China. He initiated nearly 2000 years of imperial rule and is credited with important economic and political reforms, including building a national road system and playing a role in the construction of the Great Wall. He died in 210 BC and was followed by 559 emperors who ruled throug...

                        Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis      Governments around the world have proven themselves to be utterly unable to manage their affairs. The above chart shows the rapidly rising US federal government debt. All developed nations are doing the same thing to a greater or lesser extent. The US government has no honest means to repay its debt. It hopes to continue selling newly issued debt to raise enough money to repay maturing debt (plus extra debt to cover constant budget deficits). At some point, investors will become leery of the rising debt and the government's ability to service it.  The government will then have to raise interest rates to attract buyers. The consequence of doing so is that annual interest payments on the growing debt will consume an ever-larger portion of government revenues. At some point the house of cards collapses.      Prolific...